This analysis examines how governments use legal framing to manage alliances, reduce escalation costs, and normalize military force from Gaza to Iran. Gaza showed coalitions can survive intense scrutiny through legal differentiation. Iran shows escalation prepared through careful vocabulary, military escalation and diplomacy before strikes. For Gulf states, the risk is sovereignty erosion as "limited strikes" become routine. How can the region prevent alliance management from

Analysis of Iraq's 2025 parliamentary elections examining the Coordination Framework, voter turnout surge to 56%, sectarian polarization, and implications for Iran-US relations. Expert insights on government formation and regional stability.

Roundtable Shifting Power Balances: Navigating Security in the Gulf

Iraq held its sixth post-2003 parliamentary elections on the 11th of November. More than 7,700 candidates divided between 69 party and alliance as well as 75 candidates running independently competed over the Council of Representatives’ 329 seats. The elections come at a peculiar regional situation characterized by tension and uncertainty. They could also be seen as a referendum on the power each political actor has on the ground as well as on the performance of the governmen

By Luciano Zaccara Principal Researcher Download a PDF English abstract   This article explores the volatile strategic triad between Iran, Israel, and the United States through the metaphor of the three-body problem, highlighting how structural instability and conflicting goals undermine sustained deterrence. Using the June 2025 escalation as a case study, it argues for adaptive crisis management over traditional deterrence frameworks.   Resúmen en español   Este artículo exp