By Luciano Zaccara Principal Researcher Download a PDF Abstract This article argues that the expanding use of self-defense in the Gulf confrontation is increasingly functioning as a permissive narrative rather than a legal constraint. Israeli, U.S., and Iranian actions illustrate how elastic interpretations of imminence, necessity, and proportionality are blurring the boundary between lawful and unlawful force. The paper shows how legally ambiguous retaliation has regionali

Dr. Khalid Al-Khater President, New Ground Research Download a PDF Abstract Persistent instability in the Middle East is frequently regarded as an inherent characteristic of the region. The ongoing war between the US/Israel and Iran further reinforces this perception. In reality, persistent instability is largely a consequence of how the region is framed, managed and repeatedly organised by both external and internal actors. This article contends that treating the Middle East

Abdulla Al-Khazraji Guest Contributor Download a PDF English Abstract From the US – Israeli war on Iran arises the peculiar case of Iraq. Although it has not officially entered the war, Iraq has been targeted by both sides. Already facing a political deadlock exemplified by the crisis over government formation, Baghdad is confronted with the seemingly unachievable task of maintaining Iraq’s neutrality during this war. The current escalation has already cast it

This essay shows religion isn't the direct cause of the Iran–Israel–U.S. war, but a political accelerant that sustains violence. It explores martyrdom & Mahdism in Iran, redemption & Purim analogies in Israel, and providential evangelicalism in the U.S. Offers a practical de-escalation idea.

This analysis examines how governments use legal framing to manage alliances, reduce escalation costs, and normalize military force from Gaza to Iran. Gaza showed coalitions can survive intense scrutiny through legal differentiation. Iran shows escalation prepared through careful vocabulary, military escalation and diplomacy before strikes. For Gulf states, the risk is sovereignty erosion as "limited strikes" become routine. How can the region prevent alliance management from

Analysis of Iraq's 2025 parliamentary elections examining the Coordination Framework, voter turnout surge to 56%, sectarian polarization, and implications for Iran-US relations. Expert insights on government formation and regional stability.

Roundtable Shifting Power Balances: Navigating Security in the Gulf

Iraq held its sixth post-2003 parliamentary elections on the 11th of November. More than 7,700 candidates divided between 69 party and alliance as well as 75 candidates running independently competed over the Council of Representatives’ 329 seats. The elections come at a peculiar regional situation characterized by tension and uncertainty. They could also be seen as a referendum on the power each political actor has on the ground as well as on the performance of the governmen

By Luciano Zaccara Principal Researcher Download a PDF English abstract This article explores the volatile strategic triad between Iran, Israel, and the United States through the metaphor of the three-body problem, highlighting how structural instability and conflicting goals undermine sustained deterrence. Using the June 2025 escalation as a case study, it argues for adaptive crisis management over traditional deterrence frameworks. Resúmen en español Este artículo exp