Roundtable: Shifting Power Balances: Navigating Security in the Gulf

Dec 15, 2025
2 min read

Doha Forum 7th December, 2025

Executive Summary

Chatham House Rules – No attribution

The close discussion, attended by around 30 think tankers and policy makers underscored that the Middle East is undergoing a major strategic inflection point, with long-standing assumptions about deterrence, external guarantees, and the balance of power no longer holding. Participants converged on the view that the region is experiencing a deteriorating and unstructured security order: the old order has eroded, while no new stabilizing framework has yet taken shape.

Some of the debates evolved around these topics and ideas:

1. A Fragmenting Security Environment

Recent escalatory events—including Israeli strikes across multiple theatres and unprecedented attacks on Gulf territory—have intensified doubts about the viability of soft-power approaches traditionally relied upon by some GCC states. At the same time, the United States remains militarily central but no longer a predictable or stable hegemon. Heavy defense procurement has not fully addressed gaps in collective air and missile defense, nor resolved concerns about the reliability of U.S. political commitments.

2. GCC Dilemmas and Internal Divergence

The GCC faces a dual challenge: managing its dependence on U.S. security guarantees while confronting important intra-GCC divergences on Yemen, Lebanon, Sudan, and approaches toward Iran. These divergences weaken the bloc’s ability to respond collectively to new regional risks or influence U.S.–Iran dynamics. The GCC Regional Security Vision offers a potential framework but lacks sufficient follow-up, dissemination, and operationalization.

3. Iran’s Deterrence Debate and Regional Engagement

The 2025 strikes on Iran’s nuclear and military infrastructure have generated competing interpretations of Iran’s deterrence posture. While some view Iran as weakened, Iranian narratives stress reciprocal capabilities and a willingness to impose costs. Geography, proximity, and shared vulnerabilities make a structured GCC–Iran security track essential. The 2023 Iran–Saudi normalization demonstrated potential but stalled without economic follow-through.

4. Israel’s Expanding Military Doctrine

Israel’s multi-frontal, preemptive operations—spanning Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, and Iran—were identified as a significant destabilizing force. These actions risk regional spillover, create new buffer-zone dynamics, and heighten uncertainty for Gulf states, which fear being drawn into cycles triggered by unilateral Israeli actions.

5. External Powers and Global Competition

Shifts in U.S. doctrine, coupled with its domestic political trajectory, suggest a long-term environment of selective engagement rather than comprehensive security provision. Meanwhile, closer cooperation among Russia, China, and Iran is reshaping the geopolitical landscape. European and Asian actors increasingly view Gulf stability as linked to global competition and the integrity of international law.

6. Priority Pathways Identified

Despite divergent perspectives, several actionable areas emerged as shared priorities:

Strengthen GCC internal cohesion and advance long-delayed collective defense structures.
Operationalize the GCC Regional Security Vision through sustained political ownership, working groups, and coordination with partners.
Develop a structured, dual-track GCC–Iran engagement addressing both regional theatres and the U.S.–Iran file.
Explore cooperative security mechanisms, inspired by CSCE/Helsinki-type processes, balancing national defense and collective dialogue.
Integrate economic interdependence as a core pillar of regional security, ensuring normalization initiatives deliver tangible benefits.
Focus on conflict management, not premature resolution, by embedding crisis-prevention and de-escalation mechanisms.
Explore GCC incorporation into the NATO structure without veto power to new members.

Download the PDF