This analysis examines how governments use legal framing to manage alliances, reduce escalation costs, and normalize military force from Gaza to Iran. Gaza showed coalitions can survive intense scrutiny through legal differentiation. Iran shows escalation prepared through careful vocabulary, military escalation and diplomacy before strikes. For Gulf states, the risk is sovereignty erosion as "limited strikes" become routine. How can the region prevent alliance management from

Roundtable Shifting Power Balances: Navigating Security in the Gulf

By Luciano Zaccara Principal Researcher Download a PDF English abstract   This article explores the volatile strategic triad between Iran, Israel, and the United States through the metaphor of the three-body problem, highlighting how structural instability and conflicting goals undermine sustained deterrence. Using the June 2025 escalation as a case study, it argues for adaptive crisis management over traditional deterrence frameworks.   Resúmen en español   Este artículo exp